Survey shows over 500,000 killed by the COVID vaccines so far


by Steve Kirsch, Steve Kirsch Substack:

A simple survey anyone can do provides convincing evidence that the COVID vaccines have killed over 500,000 Americans. They should be halted. Now.

Executive summary

simple survey of my readers provided some extremely compelling evidence that 1) the US government has killed over 500,000 previously healthy Americans and 2) that the vaccine actually caused the deaths.


It took me around 30 minutes to create the survey and 11 hours to wait for highly statistically significant results.

I was able to accomplish something in less than 12 hours that the CDC has been unable to accomplish in 18 months: prove causality. We see both dose dependency and enormous changes in ACM deaths pre- vs. post-vaccine. We satisfy all five Bradford-Hill criteria applicable to vaccines.

We used 400 independent observers. I should note that all follow my Substack so they are correlated: all have excellent judgment, high intelligence, and immunity from mass formation effects. So they have the ability to see what is truly going on.

The survey compared the all-cause mortality (ACM) death rates just PRIOR to a vaccine dose to the ACM death rates immediately AFTER the dose. I predicted they would be dramatically higher after the dose and the effect would be dose dependent. It appears I was right. In fact, the survey projects far more deaths than I thought possible.

The number of deaths computed from the reports could be as high as 2M Americans, but the 500,000 number seems more credible, so I’m discounting the result by 4X to account for biases and confounders.

I don’t think there is any way anyone is going to be able to “explain away” these results once we redo the survey with a better set of controls (the next step).

And these results are ONLY counting the all-cause mortality increase for just the one month after each shot. We know you can die a year later from these vaccines.

We found Dose #4 caused only a 1.27X increase compared with 5.5X to 8.3X for doses 1 and 2 respectively and 2.3X for Dose #3. If this were a highly biased population, Dose 4 would have caused a larger discrepancy, but it’s approaching 1:1 as we’d expect.

The decreasing ACM increase with later shots makes sense… The vaccine eliminates anyone whose immune system is susceptible to auto-immune attacks on the spike protein. If it hasn’t killed you after 3 shots, it’s less likely to kill you on shot #4. You’re immune due to both survivor bias and the fact that your immune system has recognized the vaccine as an invader and clears it from the system quicker than on shots 1 and 2. This of course says nothing about it’s impact on effectiveness against the virus which is likely pretty minimal at this point which is a story for another day.

The higher ACM differential on Dose 2 was interesting. This may be somewhat of a poison accumulation effect. You’re basically doubling the dose over a 4 week period rather than giving your body time to recover.

Note that this factor is simply the difference between the ACM before the shot vs. after the shot. We have no idea whether the ACM goes back to baseline between shots or not. It likely does drop. We don’t know how fast. Hence, the progressively decreasing impact on ACM increases due to the jab. It could very well be that your ACM is 1.1X your baseline months or years after the shots.

When you do the math, based on these numbers, well over 500,000 people have been killed by the vaccines so far.

If the survey were more precise, I’d expect lower ACM increases, but still a final death toll north of 500,000.

The 500K excess death estimate is supported by the actual US mortality numbers as being plausible (which have a total excess death count of roughly 1M deaths since Jan 2021).

My colleagues are looking at this data and mulling over it.

We have identified a very large signal that I don’t think will go away when we redo the survey. We will need to think carefully about the next iteration of the survey and have the protocol peer reviewed to eliminate biases before we launch it. Now we know this will be time well spent.

So don’t break out the champagne just yet. But I think you’ll want to get it ready. We are getting very close.


I thought my May 13 survey would be important. I was right. I hit the jackpot on this one. Even if the effects are 100X smaller than what we found, it’s still 10X more than any reasonable stopping condition for a vaccine (>1 death per million vaccinated).

Everyone I know has reported more deaths after vaccination than the number of deaths right before they were going to be vaccinated. That’s impossible if the vaccines are safe.

If the vaccines are perfectly safe:

  1. The death rates immediately prior to any dose should be exactly the same as the death rate immediately after the dose.
  2. The death rate should not be dose dependent. It should be 1:1 on every single dose (for the death rate before:after).

Guess what? Both of these “rules” are violated. Not by a little. By a lot. Like a factor of 5X to 8X increase in ACM in the month after the shot compared to the month before the shot according to 400 independent investigators.

And this is a VERY statistically significant result just 11 hours after I posted my Substack article.

P-value calculation on the Dose 1 ACM change shows it is very unlikely it happened by chance.

The CDC had 18 months to do this sort of survey and still hasn’t done it. They probably never will.

It’s a valid study. It just needs to be re-done just a bit more carefully.

The data

You can download the survey results here (xlsx file).

This is the first 400 form submissions.

People may try to game the system after this point so subsequent data may be unreliable.

But these first 400 responses were made under the radar and I have the email address of the person who submitted each row so that PolitiFact can verify every line. Of course, they won’t fact check me because if they verify it, it’s game over. Fact checkers can do their own survey and report the results. If they game the outcome, it will be very clear that they are not credible.

Eventually the NY Times will do the same survey and validate the results. It may be several years before they attempt do that though.

The graphs

Here are the graphs from the survey (first 437 responses) so you can visualize the results:

Forms response chart. Question title: I am a:. Number of responses: 437 responses.
Forms response chart. Question title: Number of people I know who died within 4 weeks **BEFORE** they were planning to get dose 1 of the COVID vaccine. Number of responses: 414 responses.
Forms response chart. Question title: Number of people I know who died within 4 weeks **AFTER** they got COVID dose 1. Number of responses: 413 responses.
Forms response chart. Question title: Number of people I know who died within 4 weeks **AFTER** they got COVID dose 2. Number of responses: 413 responses.
Forms response chart. Question title: Number of people I know who died within 4 weeks **BEFORE** they were planning to get COVID booster #1 (dose 3). Number of responses: 386 responses.
Forms response chart. Question title: Number of people I know who died within 4 weeks **AFTER** they got COVID booster #1 (dose 3). Number of responses: 388 responses.
Forms response chart. Question title: Number of people I know who died within 4 weeks **BEFORE** they were planning to get Booster #2 (dose 4). Number of responses: 374 responses.
Forms response chart. Question title: Number of people I know who died within 4 weeks **AFTER** they got Booster #2 (dose 4). Number of responses: 374 responses.

The back of the envelope quick analysis

What this means is devastating to the “safe and effective” narrative.

It also DESTROYS the CDC argument that there is no link between vaccines and death. It would be hard for them to explain this away: the ACM effect is huge, it is statistically significant, and it is dose dependent.

So let’s do the math. I’m just going to use round numbers because this is just an estimate. To do it right, we’d stratify by age, but we’re going to use average death rates, etc.

Around 3M people die a year in the US which is roughly a 0.86% death rate.

They don’t die evenly throughout the year, so like I said, this is just a rough estimate just to find the ballpark number.

According to Google (which uses Our World in Data):

250M got dose 1. The monthly death rate is 250M/12*.0086 = 179K. So if ACM is elevated to 5X normal, we’d expect 4*179K= 716K excess deaths. Just from the dose 1 effect. Whoa! That’s way higher than I expected and higher than the 610K available to us. So I believe our survey is overstating the effect.

220M got dose 2. So we’d do the same math as before. Our spreadsheet shows a 8X normal death rate in the following month so (8-1)*(220/12*.0086)= 1.1M excess deaths. Whoa! One shot does it all!

100M got booster which shows a 2.3X increase so (2.3-1)*(100/12*.0086)=93K excess deaths.

So 716+1100+93 = 1.9M excess deaths clearly caused by the vaccines.

Is 1.9M excess deaths too high? That’s equivalent to a 40% ACM increase over the entire 18 month period (not just in a few quarters)

So based on our very simple survey, we’d predict the vaccines caused 1.9M excess deaths total so far due to the all-cause mortality impacts. Whoa. I wasn’t expecting that. That seems way too high. We can’t see that in the CDC or Medicare numbers and those look consistent with each other. The most we can find is 1M excess deaths. So this is 2X too high.

If our calculations are right, it would mean 31% of all deaths over 18 months (1.9/(1.9+2.8*1.5)) are from the vaccine. What is interesting is that we’ve talked to embalmers who are seeing well over 60% of the deaths they do have these strange clots, only found in vaccinated people, that likely precipitated the death. So our survey is actually very consistent with the embalmer data; in fact we undershoot that data point. If we go lower, how do we explain the high rate of these telltale clots?

Our VAERS excess death estimate used 12,000 US deaths in VAERS (subtracting out background deaths)*41 (the URF) = 492,000 estimated excess deaths caused by the vaccine. But the VAERS estimate should be conservative since the URF was calculated for the “very best case” event, so any practical URF should be higher than 41. So we have consistency in our prediction (since the VAERS estimate is a minimum).

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