Oddly, many matches went as planned on Monday as players seem to be honing their game on the red dirt with a few tournaments and matches under our belts. Hopefully Tuesday’s slate is just as kind to the tennis DFS community as we get 18 matches to pick from both the ATP and WTA. DraftKings and FanDuel have given us some nice tournaments to playso let’s find some winners for our lineups on Tuesday, May 11th.
As always, be sure to check out Awesemo’s industry-leading tennis projections to find the best values and upsets on each site for every main slate.
DraftKings & FanDuel Tennis DFS Picks | May 11
Lorenzo Musetti ($9,100/$21)
Opponent: Reilly Opelka
Odds: -286 (58% win Probability per Elo Ratings)
Love this play for so many reasons but mainly because any time you get a big server on a slate it immediately supresses the ownership of his opponent. Lorenzo Musetti is part of the 2nd wave of very good players, especially on clay, coming up through the ATP. The 19-year-old Italian gave us a great sample of his skillset in the first round dispatching of Hubert Hurkacz easily before he retired. Even at his very ripe age the youth has won 9 of his 15 matches on clay in ATP events while his opponent Reilly Opelka has just three career wins with 11 losses on the red dirt.
With a win in the first round the public may have some faith in the American but Richard Gasquet does not hold a candle to the movement and game of Musetti on this surface. In a match where he’ll get plenty of opportunities to break, and hold serve, he’s a great play in all formats for tennis DFS on both sites.
Tamara Zidansek ($8,000/$17)
Opponent: Bernarda Pera
Odds: -141 (54% win Probability per Elo Ratings)
Somewhat similar to our pick above this is a stylistic matchup that serves Tamara Zidansek well. The Slovenian plays a game much more suited to clay with mobility and shot-making versus the power-style game of her opponent Bernarda Pera. Along with a game that just plays better to the surface she has also enjoyed more success for her career, and in the last year, on the red dirt. This all bears out pretty clearly as we look at the stats as Zidansek does not hold her serve well at just 60% (Pera 66%). Thankfully service games are neutralized by the clay which plays into her hands with an edge across the board in return percentages along with domination rating of 1.06 to Pera’s 1.04.
Her price on both sites is just too low in comparison to the odds and advantages she carries. If I were to build now she’d be my highest owned player almost certainly.
Fades: Lorenzo Sonego, Garbine Muguruza, Angelique Kerber