The following are Euro 2020 betting picks and predictions where I agree with the results driven by my betting model. These are selected after careful review of the best available soccer betting lines and Euro 2020 odds. For this article, we will be diving into the Portugal vs. Germany Group F match as well as a Cristiano Ronaldo player prop bet on Saturday, June 19.
Portugal vs. Germany: Euro 2020 Betting Preview
Portugal sought out a dominant win In the group of death, while Germany fell to World Cup champion France. Portugal took on Hungary and controlled 70% of the possession while posting an expected goals of 2.52. Had it not been for a few blown chances by the Portugal attack, this game easily could have ended 4-0 or worse. Cristiano Ronaldo scored a brace to get off to a confident start.
Germany did not play badly against France. They lost 1-0, and their defense did well to catch Kylian Mbappe and Karim Benzema offsides. The main concern was the offense; Serge Gnarby and Kai Havertz seemed overwhelmed. Granted there is less than a handful of teams that can keep up with France’s defense and speed. The point is Germany needs to insert more confident strikers up front, such as Timo Werner, to improve the 0.87 expected goals.
Portugal has not tasted defeat since a 1-0 loss to France back in 2020. Their defense has allowed two or fewer goals, and the offense has been shut out once against a tight defense in Spain. Germany has notable losses to Spain, North Macedonia and France recently. They have the advantage of playing the match in Munich, but the question becomes if their offense or defense gets them a result.
Portugal Win +120 (BetMGM)
Given the recent form of both nations, Portugal gets then od. The security against a draw has to be taken into account when considering the location and how well Germany played against France. Portugal seems to be in great form, and their attack creating chances and finding the back of the net is not a concern. The Portugal win or draw double chance is -165 on BetMGM. This line is a little juiced, but it is still worth taking.
To back Portugal and push the draw, one can also take Portugal tie no bet at +120 on BetMGM. Either wager is fine, but the plus money is better. The moneyline play of Portugal is less ideal because Germany is capable of responding, especially at home.
The Ronaldo prop to have over 1.5 shots on target stands at -105 on BetMGM. This is an interesting option. Consider that Ronaldo has averaged 5.21, 6.05, 5.69 and 6.93 shots per match across the previous four years at the club level. This is the same club level of Real Madrid and Juventus, which face top competition regularly. In that same run he averaged 1.93, 2.07, 2.07 and 2.8 shots on target per match. His average shot on target in his last 10 matches for Portugal is 3.30. Germany is a stout defense, but Ronaldo fires at will, handles PKs and direct free kicks.
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